Friday, 23 December 2005
The International Monetary Fund has identified three principal risks to the near-term growth outlook of Caribbean countries.
First, the IMF says, unexpected changes in the global external environment pose risks, given the region's strong trade and tourism links and dependence on foreign capital.
Secondly, risks arise from weaker terms of trade, in the form of continued high oil prices and the upcoming erosion of trade preferences.
Thirdly, the December report says political cycles also pose risks to the economic outlook-over the next 18 months, since a number of Caribbean countries are slated to have elections.
The fund notes that some Caribbean economies have been recovering from the slump after the tourist-dependent countries were hard hit by the impact of September 11, 2001.
The IMF reports that short-term growth outlook in the Caribbean is driven in part by construction activity ahead of the 2007 Cricket World Cup.
Authorities in many countries are undertaking reforms to contain external deficits and entrench growth over the medium term.
Also, the IMF says, the world oil price shock has still to be fully reflected in domestic prices in most countries.
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